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基准可挖掘性与AI创新融资

Benchmark Mineability and the Financing of AI Innovation
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Alex Chan

中文摘要

公共AI基准指引研究方向并配置投资。因此,它们是市场设计。公共样例可以揭示私有最终测试背后的过程,而有限的公共分数无法覆盖通用智能固有的广阔任务空间。我展示了当分数撬动资本时,这两种差距如何变得有利可图,以及有针对性的努力如何侵蚀后续投资者所使用的信号。市场设计的启示是将开发与认证分离:发布练习任务,但在提交系统的评估策略固定之后,再选择具有投资后果的生成器。

Abstract

Public AI benchmarks steer research and allocate investments. They are therefore market designs. Public examples can reveal the process behind a private final test, while a finite public score cannot cover a broad task space inherent to general intelligence. I show how both gaps become profitable when scores move capital and how targeted effort erodes the signal used by later investors. The market design lesson is to separate development from certification: publish practice tasks, but choose the investment-consequential generator after the submitted system's evaluation policy is fixed.
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