生育率下降：自由、充实人生与家庭的价值变迁

中文摘要

几乎所有高收入国家的生育率都出现了下降。人们期望的子女数也在减少：2012年至2022年间，理想子女数从2.42个降至2.31个；在大致相同的时期内，计划在未来三年内生育子女的受访者比例从28%降至21%。这是为什么？我们使用两项跨国调查数据——两项调查均询问受访者的态度与生育偏好，且均相隔约十年各开展过一次——将每次下降分解为一系列广泛且相互竞争的态度所作的贡献。其中有三种态度尤为突出：人们日益认为子女会妨碍父母的自由；对幼儿母亲是否应当工作的看法已明显变得更加进步，且这一变化在受过高等教育者中对生育偏好下降的解释份额要大得多；认为女性或男性需要子女才能过上充实人生的人越来越少。最后一种态度在这十年间的变化最大，也是生育意愿下降的最大影响因素，尤其是在受教育程度较低的女性中体现得最为明显。家庭劳动分工的变化以及工作与家庭冲突的加剧，对生育偏好变化的影响较小。

Abstract

Fertility has fallen in nearly all high-income countries. People also report wanting fewer children: between 2012 and 2022 the ideal number of children fell from 2.42 to 2.31 and the share of respondents intending a child within three years fell from 28 to 21 percent over a similar period. Why? Using two cross-national surveys that ask respondents about their attitudes and their fertility preferences, both fielded twice roughly a decade apart, we decompose each decline into the contribution of a broad and competing set of attitudes. Three stand out: children are increasingly seen as interfering with the freedom of parents; views on whether mothers of young children should work have become markedly more progressive and account for a substantially larger share of the decline among the tertiary-educated; and fewer people believe that women or men need children to lead a fulfilled life. This last attitude changed most over the decade and is the largest contributor to the fall in intended fertility, above all among less-educated women. The changing division of household work and increasing work-family conflict have minor contributions to changing fertility preferences.