NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Hunt Allcott、Amy Finkelstein、Anna Grummon、Matthew J. Notowidigdo
中文摘要
截至2026年7月，已有23个州批准了禁止使用SNAP（补充营养援助计划）福利购买含糖饮料的政策。然而，此类限制对消费的影响尚不明确，因为大多数家庭可以直接改用非SNAP资金购买含糖饮料。我们使用全美杂货购买面板数据，采用双重差分设计，估计在2026年上半年，首批实施限制的10个州中，相关限制使普通SNAP家庭在零售渠道购买被排除饮料的数量平均减少了12.4%（标准误=1.0）。在仅排除部分含糖饮料的州，SNAP家庭部分转而购买未被排除的饮料。我们在政策实施前后开展的调查显示，这些限制增强了SNAP领取者对污名化的感知。我们将估计得到的消费降幅与外部参数相结合，在存在过度消费内在性以及通过公共医疗支出产生的财政外部性的情况下，对福利效应进行建模。在我们的模型中，若在全美范围内将所有含糖饮料排除在SNAP之外，每年将产生约11亿美元的收益，其中约70%来自医疗成本的降低。
Abstract
As of July 2026, 23 states had approved policies that disallow spending of SNAP benefits on sugary drinks. The effects of such restrictions on consumption are unclear, however, since most households can simply switch to buying sugary drinks with non-SNAP funds. Using a difference-in- differences design with nationwide grocery purchase panel data, we estimate that restrictions in the first 10 states reduced the average SNAP household’s retail purchases of excluded drinks by 12.4 percent (standard error = 1.0) over the first half of 2026. In states that excluded only some sugary drinks, SNAP households partially substituted to non-excluded drinks. Surveys we carried out before and after implementation show that the restrictions increased SNAP recipients’ perceptions of stigma. We combine our estimated consumption reductions with external parameters to model welfare effects given an over-consumption internality and a fiscal externality via public health care spending. In our model, excluding all sugary drinks from SNAP nationwide would provide benefits of about $1.1 billion per year, of which about 70 percent is from reduced health care costs.