Econometrica · 2022 · Dennis Egger、Johannes Haushofer、Edward Miguel、Paul Niehaus、Michael Walker
中文摘要
大规模经济刺激如何引发个体和总体层面的反应，是经济学中的一个核心问题，但尚未得到实验研究。我们向肯尼亚农村653个随机选取村庄中的10,500多个贫困家庭发放了约1,000美元的一次性现金转移支付。由此产生的财政冲击超过当地GDP的15%。我们发现，现金转移支付对受助家庭的消费和资产产生了较大影响。重要的是，我们发现其对未受助家庭和企业产生了巨大的正向溢出效应，而价格通胀极小。我们估计，当地转移支付乘数为2.5。我们通过一个简单的家庭优化框架来解释其福利含义。
Abstract
How large economic stimuli generate individual and aggregate responses is a central question in economics, but has not been studied experimentally. We provided one‐time cash transfers of about USD 1000 to over 10,500 poor households across 653 randomized villages in rural Kenya. The implied fiscal shock was over 15 percent of local GDP. We find large impacts on consumption and assets for recipients. Importantly, we document large positive spillovers on non‐recipient households and firms, and minimal price inflation. We estimate a local transfer multiplier of 2.5. We interpret welfare implications through the lens of a simple household optimization framework.