宏观建模视角下的气候变化
Climate Change Through the Lens of Macroeconomic Modeling
Annual Review of Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Jesús Fernández‐Villaverde", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research", "Centre for Economic Policy Research", "University of Pennsylvania"]}, {"name": "Kenneth Gillingham", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research", "Yale University"]}, {"name": "Simon Scheidegger", "affiliation": ["European Respiratory Society", "Centre for Economic Policy Research", "University of Lausanne"]}]
中文摘要
关于气候变化宏观经济学的文献正在迅速发展。本综述聚焦于结构式综合评估模型（IAMs）在构建与求解方面的进展，强调前沿自然科学与一般均衡理论的结合。我们讨论了在求解具有尖锐非线性、多区域和多重风险来源的动态随机 IAMs 时所面临的挑战。深度学习及其他机器学习方法中的关键创新克服了诸多计算难题，并提升了政策研究结论的准确性与相关性。最后，我们概述了 IAMs 的近期应用及关键政策启示。
Abstract
There is a rapidly advancing literature on the macroeconomics of climate change. This review focuses on developments in the construction and solution of structural integrated assessment models (IAMs), highlighting the marriage of state-of-the-art natural science with general equilibrium theory. We discuss challenges in solving dynamic stochastic IAMs with sharp nonlinearities, multiple regions, and multiple sources of risk. Key innovations in deep learning and other machine learning approaches overcome many computational challenges and enhance the accuracy and relevance of policy findings. We conclude with an overview of recent applications of IAMs and key policy insights.