中文摘要
我们的研究表明，对员工“潜力”的主观评估是晋升与薪酬性别差距的成因之一。基于一家大型零售连锁企业 29,809 名管理序列员工的数据，我们发现，尽管女性获得了更高的绩效评分，但其潜力评分却显著更低。潜力评分的差异解释了约一半的性别晋升差距。女性较低的潜力评分并未反映对其未来绩效的准确预测：女性随后的表现优于男性同事，无论是平均而言还是在晋升边际上均是如此。我们着重指出驱动性别潜力差距的两种机制：战略性留任与刻板印象。（JEL J16, J31, J71, L81, M12, M51）
Abstract
We show that subjective assessments of employee “potential” contribute to gender gaps in promotion and pay. Using data on 29,809 management-track employees from a large retail chain, we find that women receive substantially lower potential ratings despite receiving higher performance ratings. Differences in potential ratings account for approximately half of the gender promotion gap. Women’s lower potential ratings do not reflect accurate forecasts of future performance: Women subsequently outperform male colleagues, both on average and on the margin of promotion. We highlight two mechanisms driving the gender potential gap: strategic retention and stereotyping. (JEL J16, J31, J71, L81, M12, M51)