评估城市交通基础设施的影响：来自波哥大 TransMilenio 的证据
Evaluating the Impact of Urban Transit Infrastructure: Evidence from Bogotá’s TransMilenio
American Economic Review · 2026 · [{"name": "Nick Tsivanidis", "affiliation": ["University of California, Berkeley"]}]
中文摘要
本文估计改善公共交通基础设施对城市结构与福利的影响。本文构建了一个包含多类劳动者群体与交通方式的定量城市模型, 并推导出一个特殊情形, 该情形可在一大类模型中给出总体福利的充分统计量。本文利用覆盖哥伦比亚波哥大全球最大快速公交系统建设过程的数据, 估计简约式弹性以实施该方法。该类模型能够解释所观测到的经济活动调整。标准的时间价值计算仅捕捉到福利收益的 52%。在考虑重新配置与一般均衡效应后, 分配影响较为温和。(JEL H76, L92, L98, O18, R42, R53)
Abstract
This paper estimates the effects of improving public transit infrastructure on city structure and welfare. It develops a quantitative urban model with multiple worker groups and transit modes, and derives a special case yielding sufficient statistics for aggregate welfare in a broad class of models. The paper estimates reduced-form elasticities to implement the approach using data spanning construction of the world’s largest Bus Rapid Transit system in Bogotá, Colombia. This class of models explains observed adjustments in economic activity. Standard value-of-time calculations capture only 52 percent of welfare gains. Accounting for reallocation and general equilibrium effects, distributional impacts are modest. (JEL H76, L92, L98, O18, R42, R53)