从模仿到创新：中国的研发投入究竟流向何方？

中文摘要

我们构建了一个具有随机交互、企业受到扭曲的内生增长模型。随着时间推移，企业通过创新或模仿其他企业来寻求技术升级，全要素生产率（TFP）分布由此内生演化。我们利用该模型量化资源错配对新兴经济体全要素生产率增长的影响。我们以匹配2007—2012年中国研发和全要素生产率增长经验分布的各阶矩为目标，对动态模型的稳态进行结构估计。估计所得模型能够很好地拟合中国数据。我们将这些估计结果与使用台湾数据所得的结果进行比较，并开展反事实分析，以研究不同政策方案的效果。研发资源错配对全要素生产率增长具有很大影响。

Abstract

We construct an endogenous growth model with random interactions where firms are subject to distortions. The TFP distribution evolves endogenously as firms seek to upgrade their technology over time either by innovating or by imitating other firms. We use the model to quantify the effects of misallocation on TFP growth in emerging economies. We structurally estimate the stationary state of the dynamic model targeting moments of the empirical distribution of R&D and TFP growth in China during the period 2007–2012. The estimated model fits the Chinese data well. We compare the estimates with those obtained using data for Taiwan and perform counterfactuals to study the effect of alternative policies. R&D misallocation has a large effect on TFP growth.