Econometrica · 2022 · Diogo G. C. Britto、Paolo Pinotti、Breno Sampaio
中文摘要
我们利用覆盖巴西全体男性工人的详细个体层面数据，将就业经历、犯罪记录和福利登记信息关联起来，研究失去工作对犯罪的影响以及失业保险待遇的缓解作用。因大规模裁员而失去工作的工人，其犯罪概率平均上升23%；其同住儿子的犯罪概率增幅略低。利用因果森林方法，我们发现，这一效应完全由年轻工人和在现单位工作年限较短的工人驱动，而不同教育程度和收入水平的工人之间不存在异质性。断点回归估计表明，领取失业保险待遇的资格能够完全抵消失去工作后潜在的犯罪增幅，但这一效应在待遇到期后立即完全消失。我们的研究结果表明，流动性约束和心理压力是失去工作后犯罪行为增加的主要驱动因素，而在岗时间与闲暇时间之间的替代似乎并未发挥重要作用。
Abstract
We investigate the impact of job loss on crime and the mitigating role of unemployment benefits, exploiting detailed individual‐level data linking employment careers, criminal records, and welfare registries for the universe of male workers in Brazil. The probability of committing crimes increases on average by 23% for workers displaced by mass layoffs, and by slightly less for their cohabiting sons. Using causal forests, we show that the effect is entirely driven by young and low‐tenure workers, while there is no heterogeneity by education and income. Regression discontinuity estimates indicate that unemployment benefit eligibility completely offsets potential crime increases upon job loss, but this effect vanishes completely immediately after benefit expiration. Our findings point to liquidity constraints and psychological stress as the main drivers of criminal behavior upon job loss, while substitution between time on the job and leisure does not seem to play an important role.