中文摘要
围绕残疾保险的公共讨论，主要关注的是健康状况并不严重的个人领取福利这一问题。我们不再仅仅考虑健康风险，而是量化美国残疾保险项目的总体保险价值，其中包括为非健康风险提供保险所产生的价值。我们发现，残疾保险受益人，尤其是健康状况较轻的受益人，经历各种非健康冲击的可能性远高于非受益人。在健康状况较轻的个人中，基于非健康冲击而选择进入残疾保险福利领取状态的现象十分突出，以至于按照许多衡量指标，健康状况较轻的受益人反而比健康状况较严重的受益人处境更差。因此，在基准假设下，与成本等价的减税措施相比，向健康状况较轻的受益人发放福利所产生的年度盈余价值（保险收益减去效率成本）为每位受益人7700美元，约为向健康状况较严重的受益人发放福利所产生价值（9900美元）的四分之三。针对非健康风险的保险约占美国残疾保险项目价值的一半。
Abstract
The public debate over disability insurance has centered on concerns about individuals without severe health conditions receiving benefits. We go beyond health risk alone to quantify the overall insurance value of U.S. disability programs, including value from insuring nonhealth risk. We find that disability recipients, especially those with less‐severe health conditions, are much more likely to have experienced a wide variety of nonhealth shocks than nonrecipients. Selection into disability receipt on the basis of nonhealth shocks is so strong among individuals with less‐severe health conditions that by many measures less‐severe recipients are worse off than more‐severe recipients. As a result, under baseline assumptions, benefits to less‐severe recipients have an annual surplus value (insurance benefit less efficiency cost) over cost‐equivalent tax cuts of $7700 per recipient, about three‐fourths that of benefits to more‐severe recipients ($9900). Insurance against nonhealth risk accounts for about one‐half of the value of U.S. disability programs.