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恐怖主义融资、招募与袭击

Terrorism Financing, Recruitment, and Attacks
Econometrica · 2022 · Nicola Limodio

中文摘要

本文考察恐怖主义融资和招募对袭击的影响。我利用巴基斯坦一个符合伊斯兰教法的机构;该机构借由恐怖组织的宗教归属,使这些组织获得的资金产生了非预期的准实验变异。结果表明,在给定地点和时期,更多的恐怖主义融资会导致同一地点和时期发生更多袭击。在制造袭击方面,融资与恐怖分子招募具有互补性;招募情况通过亲圣战主义的网络论坛数据和机器学习方法加以测度。袭击的增加源于恐怖活动供给的增加,这一机制通过研究在多个城市开展活动且宗教归属不同的组织得到识别。这些发现与恐怖组织的内部资本市场存在融资摩擦相一致。

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of terrorism financing and recruitment on attacks. I exploit a Sharia‐compliant institution in Pakistan, which induces unintended and quasi‐experimental variation in the funding of terrorist groups through their religious affiliation. The results indicate that higher terrorism financing, in a given location and period, generate more attacks in the same location and period. Financing exhibits a complementarity in producing attacks with terrorist recruitment, measured through data from Jihadist‐friendly online fora and machine learning. A higher supply of terror is responsible for the increase in attacks and is identified by studying groups with different affiliations operating in multiple cities. These findings are consistent with terrorist organizations facing financial frictions to their internal capital market.
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