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总量消费需求的广延边际

The Extensive Margin of Aggregate Consumption Demand
Review of Economic Studies · 2021 · Claudio Michelacci、Luigi Paciello、Andrea Pozzi

中文摘要

美国非耐用品消费支出变化中,约有一半源于进入家庭消费篮子的产品发生变化(即广延边际)。消费篮子的变化由家庭将产品加入篮子的速率波动所驱动,而产品移除的波动很小。这些模式反映出,为应对收入增加,家庭会采纳市场上已经存在的消费品。家庭的产品采纳行为将财政转移支付对消费的影响放大了30%以上。家庭产品采纳的周期性还意味着,在本文数据涵盖的消费类别中,基于一个消费市场上全部可得品种的代表性家庭所构造的通胀指标,在大衰退期间低估了家庭层面的真实通胀,低估幅度每年最高可达1%。

Abstract

Abstract About half of the change in U.S. non-durable consumption expenditure is due to changes in the products entering households’ consumption basket (the extensive margin). Changes in the basket are driven by fluctuations in the rate at which households add products; removals fluctuate little. These patterns reflect that, in response to income increases, households adopt consumer products already available in the market. Household adoption amplifies the effects of fiscal transfers on consumption by more than 30%. Cyclical household adoption of products also implies that inflation measures based on a representative household consuming all varieties available in the market underestimate true household-level inflation by as much as 1% per year over the Great Recession in the consumption categories covered by our data.
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