养老金与生育：微观经济学证据

中文摘要

本研究识别了养老金给付的慷慨程度对女性生育行为的因果效应。研究利用了巴西将养老金体系扩展至农村劳动者的政策变化；此后，这些劳动者的养老金财富增至原来的三倍以上。双重差分、工具变量和事件研究方法的结果表明，养老金改革在短期内使育龄女性的生育倾向降低了8%。改革实施后的20年内，完成生育率下降了1.3个孩子，从而缩小了现收现付制的长期缴费基数。生育反应在较高生育胎次、年龄较大的女性以及已有儿子的母亲中最为强烈。（JEL H55、I38、J13、J16、O15）

Abstract

This study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women’s fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil’s expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Difference-in-difference, instrumental variable, and event study methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women of fertile age by 8 percent in the short run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the pay-as-you-go long run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women, and among mothers with sons. (JEL H55, I38, J13, J16, O15)