消费信贷与关税归宿：来自汽车行业的证据
Consumer Credit and the Incidence of Tariffs: Evidence from the Auto Industry
American Economic Review · 2026 · [{"name": "Kristine Watson Hankins", "affiliation": ["University of Kentucky"]}, {"name": "Morteza Momeni", "affiliation": ["Tennessee Technological University"]}, {"name": "David Sovich", "affiliation": ["University of Kentucky"]}]
中文摘要
附属金融子公司为贸易政策影响消费信贷开辟了一条渠道。通过考察特朗普政府金属关税对附属汽车贷款机构的影响，我们发现，关税实施后，相对于未受影响的非附属贷款机构，消费者从附属贷款机构获得的利率更高。此外，我们记录到这一影响对低收入借款人以及贷款竞争较弱地区存在差异化冲击。我们的结果表明，关税不仅可能影响商品价格，还可能影响购买的融资条款。因此，若仅关注直接受影响的产品价格，可能会显著低估关税传导。（JEL F13, F14, G21, L22, L61, L62）
Abstract
Captive finance subsidiaries create a channel for trade policy to affect consumer credit. Examining the impact of the Trump administration’s metal tariffs on captive automobile lenders, we find that consumers received higher interest rates from captive lenders after the tariffs relative to unaffected noncaptive lenders. Further, we document a disparate impact on low-income borrowers and in areas with less lending competition. Our results suggest that tariffs may impact not only the price of goods but also the financing terms of purchases. Thus, focusing solely on directly affected product prices may underestimate tariff pass-through significantly. (JEL F13, F14, G21, L22, L61, L62)