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谁害怕政策实验?

Who's Afraid of Policy Experiments?
The Economic Journal · 2024 · Robert Dur、Arjan Non、Paul Prottung、Benedetta Ricci

中文摘要

在许多公共政策领域,随机政策实验可以极大地增进我们对政策效果的认识,从而有助于改进公共政策。然而,政策实验并不常见。本文考察选民缺乏对政策实验的认可是否可能是造成这一现象的原因。通过收集对荷兰选民总体具有代表性的调查数据,我们发现了明确反驳这一观点的证据。选民强烈支持开展政策实验,尤其是在他们对相关政策没有强烈意见时。在随后针对一组选定的荷兰政治人物开展的调查实验中,我们发现,政治人物会调整其公开表达的政策实验观点,使之与我们告知他们的选民实际意见保持一致。

Abstract

Abstract In many public policy areas, randomised policy experiments can greatly contribute to our knowledge of the effects of policies and can thus help to improve public policy. However, policy experiments are not very common. This paper studies whether a lack of appreciation for policy experiments among voters may be the reason for this. Collecting survey data representative of the Dutch electorate, we find clear evidence contradicting this view. Voters strongly support policy experimentation and particularly so when they do not hold a strong opinion about the policy. In a subsequent survey experiment among a selected group of Dutch politicians, we find that politicians conform their expressed opinion about policy experiments to what we tell them the actual opinion of voters is.
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