酒精、暴力与伤害所致死亡：来自当代禁酒令的证据
Alcohol, Violence, and Injury-Induced Mortality: Evidence from a Modern-Day Prohibition
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2022 · Kai Barron、Charles Parry、Debbie Bradshaw、Rob Dorrington、Pam Groenewald、Ria Laubscher
中文摘要
本文评估了南非一项突然而出人意料的全国性酒精销售禁令的影响。我们发现，该政策使该国的伤害所致死亡因果性地降低了至少14%。我们认为，这一估计是酒精对伤害所致死亡真实影响的下限。我们还发现暴力犯罪急剧下降，这表明酒精与社会中的攻击性行为密切相关。我们的研究结果凸显了酒精可能造成的严重危害，并表明，针对社会中饮酒程度最重者的政策措施可以发挥一定作用。
Abstract
Abstract This paper evaluates the impact of a sudden and unexpected nationwide alcohol sales ban in South Africa. We find that this policy causally reduced injury-induced mortality in the country by at least 14%. We argue that this estimate constitutes a lower bound on the true impact of alcohol on injury-induced mortality. We also document a sharp drop in violent crimes, indicating a tight link between alcohol and aggressive behavior in society. Our results underscore the severe harm that alcohol can cause and point toward a role for policy measures that target the heaviest drinkers in society.