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监禁对死亡率的影响

The Effect of Incarceration on Mortality
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2022 · Samuel Norris、Matthew Pecenco、Jeffrey Weaver

中文摘要

本文利用俄亥俄州1992年至2017年的行政数据,分析监禁对死亡率的影响。我们首先发现,与类似的未被监禁被告相比,被监禁者的长期生存率更高。利用围绕释放时间展开的事件研究设计,我们揭示了其中的原因:监禁期间的死亡风险减半,谋杀、药物过量和自然原因导致的死亡均大幅减少。然而,监禁并未提高释放后的死亡率,因此其总体效应是延长寿命。这些估计结果反映了被告在未被监禁时所处的高风险环境,并表明可以采取非监禁类政策来降低这些风险。

Abstract

Abstract This paper analyzes the effect of incarceration on mortality using administrative data from Ohio between 1992 and 2017. We first document that long-run survival is higher among the incarcerated than similar nonincarcerated defendants. Using event study designs centered around the time of release, we show why: mortality risk halves during the period of incarceration, with large reductions in murders, overdoses, and natural causes of death. However, incarceration does not increase postrelease mortality, and so the overall effect is increased longevity. These estimates reflect the high-risk environment faced by defendants when not incarcerated and suggest noncarceral policies to reduce these risks.
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