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炉边谈话:大萧条时期的沟通与消费者预期

Fireside Chats: Communication and Consumers’ Expectations in the Great Depression
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2022 · Mathieu Pedemonte

中文摘要

本文说明了如何利用政策公告来管理预期。利用广播接触度的地区差异,本文评估了罗斯福总统1935年炉边谈话的影响。在此次谈话中,他着重介绍了重要社会政策的出台,由此开启了新政的新一轮扩张周期。本文发现,对该公告接触度较高的城市,其耐用消费品支出显著增加。估计效应与符合所宣布政策的预期变化相一致。本文表明,沟通作为一种政策工具具有强大作用。

Abstract

Abstract This paper shows how policy announcements can be used to manage expectations. Using regional variation in radio exposure, I evaluate the impact of FDR’s 1935 Fireside Chat, in which he showcased the introduction of important social policies, establishing a new expansionary cycle of the New Deal. I document that cities with higher exposure to the announcement exhibited a significant increase in spending on durable goods. The estimated effect is consistent with changes in expectations in line with the policies announced. This paper shows the power of communication as a policy tool.
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