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投票年龄、信息实验与政治参与:来自一次大选的证据

Voting age, information experiments, and political engagement: Evidence from a general election
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · Philip Keefer、Razvan Vlaicu

中文摘要

本文利用自行收集的实验和准实验调查数据,研究发展中国家选民参与政治的激励。投票资格是否会产生促使选民参与政治和了解相关信息的内在激励,抑或选民仍会保持理性无知和冷漠?政治兴趣背后存在何种动机?选民是否了解竞选期间讨论的政策议题?为回答这些问题,我们在一次重要大选前几周,对墨西哥三十个校区的高中毕业班学生开展了调查。基于年龄的断点回归结果表明,刚达到投票资格的受访者在政治动机和行动方面的得分高于刚好尚未达到投票资格的受访者。一项调查实验显示,有关青年选票潜在规模的信息以符合社会激励的方式提高了具备投票资格的受访者的政治兴趣。在第二项实验中,有关当前政策挑战的信息对具备投票资格的受访者政策优先事项的影响小于对不具备资格者的影响,这反映出具备资格者对重要政策议题已有一定了解。

Abstract

This paper addresses voter incentives for political engagement in developing countries, using self-collected experimental and quasi-experimental survey data. Does voting eligibility create intrinsic incentives to become engaged and informed, or do voters remain rationally ignorant and apathetic? What motivations underlie political interest? Are voters knowledgeable about policy issues debated during election campaigns? To address these questions, we fielded a survey of high school seniors across thirty Mexican campuses a few weeks prior to a major general election. Age-based regression discontinuity indicates that the just-eligible measure higher on political motivation and actions than the just-ineligible. One survey experiment shows that information about the potential magnitude of the youth vote increases eligible respondents’ political interest in ways consistent with social incentives. In the second experiment, information about current policy challenges affects eligible respondents’ policy priorities less than the ineligible, reflecting eligibles’ pre-existing knowledge about salient policy issues.
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