犯罪是中美洲移民的“根本原因”吗？来自萨尔瓦多的证据

中文摘要

我们估计了布克尔总统2022年打击犯罪行动对美国边境移民遭遇事件的影响。萨尔瓦多是经由美国南部边境移民的重要来源国，且犯罪率较高。2022年3月，暴力事件激增，促使政府宣布紧急状态并大规模逮捕疑似帮派成员；这些措施引发了人权担忧，同时显著降低了凶杀率。运用双重差分和合成队列方法，我们发现，相较于其他国籍者，涉及萨尔瓦多人的美国边境遭遇事件数量下降了45%–67%。

Abstract

We estimate the impact of President Bukele's 2022 crime crackdown on migrant encounters at the U.S. border. El Salvador is a key source of migration through the Southern U.S. border and had high crime rates. In March 2022, a surge in violence led to a state of exception and mass arrest of suspected gang affiliates, which raised human rights concerns and significantly reduced homicides. Applying difference-in-differences and synthetic cohort methods, we find an 45%–67% decline in U.S. border encounters with Salvadorans relative to others.