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移民如何促进出口?

How Do Immigrants Promote Exports?
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · Gianluca Orefice、Hillel Rapoport、Gianluca Santoni

中文摘要

移民如何促进出口?为回答这一问题,我们提出了一个实证框架,用以区分在双边层面发挥作用的移民网络与在总体层面发挥作用的生产率渠道(知识扩散和劳动力多样性增加)各自的作用。我们发现,在广延边际和集约边际上均有证据支持这两类渠道。采用多种工具变量策略所得的结果均具有稳健性。较富裕国家的出口往往更多地受益于移民多样性,尤其是在生产过程复杂的行业;而发展中国家则更多地受益于知识扩散。• 移民有可能提高东道国的生产率,尤其是在移民从原籍国带来的生产技能和知识能够补充当地要素并与之形成互补的行业。• 移民引起的生产率变化与连接移民及其原籍国的网络体系所带来的交易成本下降相结合,最终体现为出口表现的改善。• 我们使用标准引力模型检验交易成本渠道,并采用出口国—行业—年份层面的汇总估计检验知识扩散渠道和出生地多样性渠道。结果表明,这三种渠道均在发挥作用。

Abstract

How do immigrants promote exports? To answer this question we propose an empirical framework allowing to disentangle the role of migration networks that operate at a bilateral level from that of productivity channels (knowledge diffusion and increased workforce diversity) that operate at the aggregate level. We find evidence supporting both, at the extensive as well as at the intensive margin. The results are robust to using various IV strategies. While richer countries’ exports tend to benefit more from immigrants’ diversity (especially in sectors characterized by complex production processes), developing countries benefit from knowledge diffusion more. • Immigration has the potential to make host countries more productive, especially in sectors in which immigrants bring with them productive skills and knowledge from their home countries that supplement and complement local factors. • Migration-induced productivity shifts combined to lower transaction costs generated through the web of networks linking immigrants to their home countries materialize in the form of a better export performance. • We use a standard gravity model to test the transaction cost channel, and exporter–sector–year aggregated estimations to test the knowledge diffusion and birthplace diversity channels. We show that all three channels are at play.
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