寻找圣杯：赞比亚无条件现金转移计划的干预后效应

中文摘要

赞比亚政府的儿童补助计划（CGP）向有年幼子女的家庭提供无条件现金转移。此前对CGP实施期间（2010—2014年）的实验评估表明，该计划产生了较大的正向效应。在本项分析中，我们使用2017年的项目结束后调查数据，评估这些效应是否得以持续。我们发现，CGP对粮食安全、儿童物质福祉等结果的效应均未持续，这既是因为处理组中的效应消退，也是因为对照组有所追赶。处理组的某些结果（如牲畜持有量）保持不变或有所增加，但对照组的这些结果也有所增加，且增幅足以使两组趋同。研究结果表明，对于生活在生存边缘的家庭而言，小额现金转移（每月12美元）在转移停止后不太可能带来生活水平的持续改善。• 赞比亚政府的一项无条件儿童补助在四年后显示出较大的正向效应。• 这些效应体现在消费和粮食安全方面，也体现在生产性活动和储蓄方面。• 项目结束三年后，所有效应均已消退。• 用于支持极端贫困家庭消费的小额无条件转移能够产生实质性影响，但无法使这些家庭永久摆脱贫困。• 为减少长期结构性贫困，此类转移需要与直接针对生产能力的补充性干预措施相结合。

Abstract

The Zambian government’s Child Grant Program (CGP) provided unconditional cash transfers to households with young children. Previous evidence from an experimental evaluation while the CGP was in place (2010- 2014) showed large, positive program impacts. In this analysis, we use post-program survey data from 2017 to assess whether impacts are sustained. We find that none of the CGP impacts – on outcomes such as food security and child material well-being – persist due to impact fade-out in the treatment group but also catch-up in the control group. Some outcomes (e.g. livestock) stay the same or increase in the treatment group, but they also increase in the control group to the extent that there is convergence. Our results suggest that for households living at the edge of survival, small cash transfers (at US$12 per month) are unlikely to lead to sustained improvements in living standards after the cessation of transfers. • A Government of Zambia unconditional child grant showed large positive impacts after four year • Impacts were on consumption and food security and also on productive activity and savings • Three years after the program ended, all impacts faded out • Small, unconditional transfers to support consumption among ultra-poor households have meaningful impacts but cannot vault ultra-poor households permanently out of poverty • Such transfers will need to be coupled with complementary interventions directly addressing productive capacity in order to reduce long-term structural poverty