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当堤防决口时:洪水对中国教育成果的影响

When the levee breaks: The impact of floods on educational outcomes in China
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · Zenghe Huang、Xu-Yan Dong

中文摘要

本研究考察洪水对中国人力资本投资的影响。我们发现,早期洪水暴露显著降低了农村地区的受教育程度和进入高中的可能性,这种影响在洪水风险较低的地区、非蓄滞洪区以及没有防洪大坝的县尤为明显。收入效应和机会成本效应共同导致了这些结果,且洪水对贫困家庭学生的影响尤为严重。洪水过后,低技能和劳动密集型企业的出现带来了新的就业机会,从而进一步加剧了上述负面影响。针对1998年中国洪灾开展的队列双重差分分析表明,洪水地区15岁以下的受影响儿童,其受教育年限减少了0.16年。我们的研究结果凸显了制定相关防洪政策的必要性,以减轻洪水对中国人力资本积累的长期不利影响。

Abstract

This study examines the impact of flooding on human capital investment in China. We find that early flood exposure significantly reduces educational attainment and the likelihood of entering high school in rural areas, particularly in regions with lower flood risk, non-detention basins, and counties without flood control dams. Income and opportunity cost effects contribute to these outcomes, with floods disproportionately affecting students from poor households. The emergence of low-skilled and labor-intensive firms post-floods further exacerbates the negative impact due to new job opportunities. A cohort difference-in-difference analysis of the 1998 China flood reveals that affected children under 15 in flooded areas experienced a reduction of 0.16 years in education. Our findings highlight the need for flood policies that mitigate the long-term adverse effects on human capital accumulation in China.
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