腐败接触经历、政治信任与移民

中文摘要

学者和政治家一直担忧，来自政治信任水平较低国家的移民会将这些态度带到目的地国。我们利用覆盖38个国家的大规模调查数据，并借助不同移民队列和调查轮次之间的原籍国差异进行分析。结果表明，事实恰恰相反：移民前接触制度性腐败越多的移民，在新国家表现出的政治信任水平越高。这种较高的信任仅见于对国家层面政治机构的信任，并未延伸至其他超国家机构或个人。我们的证据表明，移民较高的政治信任水平会持续存在，并在长期内带来更多的选举参与和政治活动参与。当原籍国与东道国在收入和民主水平上存在巨大差距时，原籍国腐败对移民在目的地国政治信任的影响会进一步增强，因为这些差距凸显了两种环境之间的反差。接触媒体则会削弱这一影响，因为媒体是了解制度质量的信息来源。最后，我们的大量分析表明，移民基于信任水平自我选择东道国的可能性极低；即使仅考察不太可能受到这种选择影响的被迫迁移者，结果依然成立。

Abstract

Scholars and politicians have expressed concern that immigrants from countries with low levels of political trust transfer those attitudes to their destination countries. Using large-scale survey data covering 38 countries and exploiting origin-country variation across different cohorts and survey rounds, we show that, to the contrary, immigrants more exposed to institutional corruption before migrating exhibit higher levels of political trust in their new country. Higher trust is observed for national political institutions only and does not carry over to other supra-national institutions and individuals. We report evidence that higher levels of political trust among immigrants persist, leading to greater electoral participation and political engagement in the long run. The impact of home-country corruption on political trust in the destination country is further amplified by large differences in levels of income and democracy between home and host countries, which serve to highlight the contrast in the two settings. It is lessened by exposure to media, a source of information about institutional quality. Finally, our extensive analyses indicate that self-selection into host countries based on trust is highly unlikely and the results hold even when focusing only on forced migrants who were unlikely to have been subject to selection.