Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · Alfredo Burlando、Michael Kuhn、Silvia Prina
中文摘要
数字贷款是数以百万计的人获取快捷短期信贷的一个来源。尽管数字信贷拓宽了市场准入并降低了交易摩擦,但其违约率很高。我们研究数字贷款放款速度对还款的作用。本研究使用来自墨西哥一家数字放贷机构的独特行政数据,并采用断点回归设计。我们发现,通过将放款时间从十小时延长至二十小时(即放款时间翻倍)来降低放款速度,可使违约概率降低21%。若干合理的机制可以解释这些结果。其中与我们数据最相符的一种机制是:在遭遇意外的延迟后,借款人会调整其偏好的贷款用途,从而提高还款的可能性。我们的研究结果提示,利用等待期有选择地放慢信贷发放,可能提高放贷机构的盈利能力,并帮助消费者避免违约。
Abstract
Digital loans are a source of fast, short-term credit for millions of people. While digital credit broadens market access and reduces frictions, default rates are high. We study the role of the speed of delivery of digital loans on repayment. Our study uses unique administrative data from a digital lender in Mexico and a regression-discontinuity design. We show that reducing loan speed by doubling the delivery time from ten to twenty hours decreases the likelihood of default by 21%. A number of the plausible mechanisms could explain these results. The one that best support our data is that following an unexpected delay, borrowers switch their preferred use of loans in a way that improves the chances of repayment. Our findings suggest that waiting periods used to selectively slow down credit could improve lender profitability and help consumers avoid default.