中文摘要
本文考察不同性别在劳动力市场冲击中的暴露程度差异是否推动了巴西极右翼民粹主义的兴起。采用转移份额方法，我们发现，冲击暴露的性别异质性可以预测选举结果。男性特有的劳动力需求冲击提高了雅伊尔·博索纳罗在2018年总统选举中获得的支持，而女性特有的冲击则产生相反效应。这两种方向相反的效应伴随着政治偏好中前所未有的性别差距，其中男性变得相对更加保守。我们倾向于将其解释为：博索纳罗所使用、同时也为其他几位右翼民粹主义者所共有的保守主义言论，对经历经济地位相对下降的男性具有吸引力。• 不同性别对一次严重经济衰退的特定反应可以预测2018年投给博索纳罗的选票。• 男性特有的劳动力需求冲击提高了对博索纳罗的支持。• 女性特有的冲击则产生相反效应。• 自2018年以来，巴西出现了政治偏好中前所未有的性别差距。
Abstract
This paper investigates whether differential exposure to a labor market shock by gender contributed to the rise of far-right populism in Brazil. Using a shift-share approach, we find that gender heterogeneity in shock exposure predicts electoral outcomes. Male-specific labor demand shocks increase support for Jair Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential election, but female-specific shocks have the reverse effect. These opposing effects are accompanied by an unprecedented gender gap in political preferences, with men becoming relatively more conservative. Our preferred interpretation is that Bolsonaro’s conservative rhetoric – shared by several other right-wing populists – generates appeal among men who experience a relative loss in economic status. • Gender-specific responses to a major recession predict votes for Bolsonaro in 2018. • Male-specific labor demand shocks increase support for Bolsonaro. • Female-specific shocks have the reverse effect. • Since 2018, an unprecedented gender gap in political preferences emerges in Brazil.