AER: Insights · 2026 · Berthold Herrendorf、Richard Donald Rogerson、Ákos Valentinyi
中文摘要
劳动力从农业中流出是发展过程的核心特征。长期以来的观点是，成功的发展要求从农业中释放的大部分劳动力配置到制造业而非服务业。Rodrik（2013）利用UNIDO数据发现了制造业生产率的无条件收敛，为这一观点提供了实证支持。我们认为，UNIDO数据不适合用于研究跨国生产率动态。使用专为此目的而最新发布的GGDC数据，我们重新考察了这一问题，并发现1990–2018年间制造业生产率不存在无条件收敛的证据。（JEL D24, J24, L60, O13, O14, O47, Q10）
Abstract
The movement of labor out of agriculture is a central feature of the development process. A long-held view is that successful development requires that much of the labor released from agriculture be allocated to manufacturing rather than services. Rodrik's (2013) finding of unconditional convergence for manufacturing productivity, using data from UNIDO, provided empirical support for this view. We argue that the UNIDO data are ill-suited for studying cross-country productivity dynamics. Using recently released GGDC data designed for this purpose, we revisit the issue and find no evidence of unconditional convergence in manufacturing productivity over 1990–2018. (JEL D24, J24, L60, O13, O14, O47, Q10)