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Fisher–Schultz讲座:药品目录与返利的合约设计

Fisher–Schultz Lecture: Contracting Over Pharmaceutical Formularies and Rebates
Econometrica · 2026 · Kate Ho、Robin S. Lee

中文摘要

我们考察药品福利管理机构(PBM)使用的药品目录如何通过分层和排除影响品牌药制造商的均衡返利。我们构建了一个多维合约理论模型,其中PBM就一组基于药品目录的返利菜单与药品制造商进行谈判,并选择药品目录。随后,我们利用普林斯顿大学的理赔数据,估计消费者对他汀类药物分层安置的需求响应;普林斯顿大学是一家大型雇主,与单一PBM签约,为其雇员提供处方药保障。结合理论模型、需求估计与观测到的目录价格,我们量化了允许差异化分层安置和排除对均衡返利的影响。我们的预测与现有的总体返利数据一致,并且我们发现,允许PBM将品牌药置于优选层级和非优选层级,可大幅提高谈判达成的返利支付。

Abstract

We investigate how formularies used by pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) affect equilibrium manufacturer rebates for branded drugs through tiering and exclusion. We develop a theoretical model of multidimensional contracting in which a PBM negotiates with drug manufacturers over menus of formulary‐contingent rebates and chooses a formulary. We then estimate consumer demand responses to tier placement for statins using claims data from Princeton University, a large employer contracting with a single PBM to offer prescription drug coverage to its employees. Combining the theoretical model with demand estimates and observed list prices, we quantify how allowing for differential tier placement and exclusion affect equilibrium rebates. Our predictions are consistent with available aggregate rebate data, and we find that allowing a PBM to place branded drugs on preferred‐ and non‐preferred tiers can substantially increase negotiated rebate payments.
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