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合同中的货币选择

Currency Choice in Contracts
Review of Economic Studies · 2021 · Andrés Drenik、Rishabh Kirpalani、Diego Pérez

中文摘要

我们研究国内私人合同的货币选择与最优货币政策之间的相互作用。最优货币选择取决于每种货币的价格风险,也取决于该货币的价格与合同签约方相对消费需求之间的协方差。当以本币计价的合同占比提高时,政府可以更有效地利用通货膨胀重新分配资源或降低违约成本,从而使本币对私人合同更具吸引力。当政府缺乏承诺能力时,竞争均衡可能具有约束无效率,这为监管私人合同的货币选择提供了理由。我们表明,本币的均衡使用程度以及由此产生的监管含义均取决于国内政策风险的水平。我们的模型可以解释美元在国际贸易合同中的广泛使用,以及现实中观察到的美元化滞后性。

Abstract

Abstract We study the interaction between the currency choice of private domestic contracts and optimal monetary policy. The optimal currency choice depends on the price risk of each currency, as well as on the covariance of its price and the relative consumption needs of the agents signing the contract. When a larger share of contracts is denominated in local currency, the government can use inflation more effectively to either redistribute resources or reduce default costs, which makes local currency more attractive for private contracts. When governments lack commitment, competitive equilibria can be constrained inefficient, thus providing a reason to regulate the currency choice of private contracts. We show that both the equilibrium use of local currency and the implications for regulation depend on the level of domestic policy risk. Our model can explain the wide use of the US dollar in international trade contracts and the observed hysteresis in dollarization.
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