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青少年吸烟成瘾与教育的因果效应

The Causal Effects of Youth Cigarette Addiction and Education
Journal of Political Economy · 2025 · Rong Hai、James Heckman

中文摘要

我们构建并估计了一个成瘾的生命周期模型,其中具有前瞻性的青少年在面临借贷约束的情况下,选择是否吸烟、上学、从事兼职工作以及消费。该模型包含多种渠道,用于研究成瘾与教育之间双向因果效应。禀赋和香烟价格的变动是识别的来源。我们表明,教育在因果意义上减少了吸烟。一项反事实实验发现,若不存在吸烟行为,人口总体的大学入学率将提高2个百分点。另一种加征25%消费税的方案取得了类似结果。影响在认知能力和非认知能力不同的个体之间存在显著差异。

Abstract

We develop and estimate a life-cycle model of addiction in which forward-looking youth choose to smoke, attend school, work part-time, and consume while facing borrowing constraints. The model features multiple channels for studying the reciprocal causal effects of addiction and education. Variations in endowments and cigarette prices are sources of identification. We show that education causally reduces smoking. A counterfactual experiment finds that in the absence of cigarette smoking, college attendance increases by 2 percentage points in the population. An alternative 25% additional excise tax achieves similar results. Impacts vary substantially across persons of different cognitive and noncognitive abilities.
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