青少年香烟成瘾与教育的因果效应
The Causal Effects of Youth Cigarette Addiction and Education
Journal of Political Economy · 2025 · [{"name": "Rong Hai", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "James Heckman", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
我们构建并估计了一个成瘾的生命周期模型: 具有前瞻性的青年在面临借贷约束的情况下, 选择是否吸烟、上学、从事兼职工作以及消费。该模型包含多个渠道, 用于研究成瘾与教育之间互为因果的效应。禀赋与香烟价格的差异是识别的来源。我们表明, 教育会因果性地减少吸烟。一项反事实实验发现, 若不存在吸烟行为, 总人口中的大学入学率将提高2个百分点; 另一种方案——额外加征25%的消费税——也能取得类似效果。上述影响在认知能力与非认知能力不同的个体之间存在显著差异。
Abstract
We develop and estimate a life-cycle model of addiction in which forward-looking youth choose to smoke, attend school, work part-time, and consume while facing borrowing constraints. The model features multiple channels for studying the reciprocal causal effects of addiction and education. Variations in endowments and cigarette prices are sources of identification. We show that education causally reduces smoking. A counterfactual experiment finds that in the absence of cigarette smoking, college attendance increases by 2 percentage points in the population. An alternative 25% additional excise tax achieves similar results. Impacts vary substantially across persons of different cognitive and noncognitive abilities.