Journal of Economic Literature · 2025 · Melissa S. Kearney、Phillip B. Levine
中文摘要
本文探讨了为何几乎所有高收入国家的生育率都已降至历史低位。利用队列数据，我们发现，在所有观测年龄上，无子女比例均有所上升，而完成生育率则有所下降。这一队列视角凸显了解释生育行为长期转变的必要性。我们回顾了现有研究，并得出结论：基于时期、侧重于收入或价格短期变化的解释，无法说明这种普遍下降。相反，现有证据表明，成年人对各项生活事务的优先排序发生了广泛重构，为人父母在其中所占的地位有所下降。我们将这一现象称为“优先事项转变”，并认为它很可能反映了规范变化、经济机会与约束的演变，以及更广泛的社会文化力量共同作用所形成的复杂组合。我们回顾了关于所有这些因素的新近证据。最后，本文提出了未来研究的若干方向，并简要讨论了相关政策启示。
Abstract
This paper considers why fertility has fallen to historically low levels in virtually all high-income countries.Using cohort data, we document rising childlessness at all observed ages and falling completed fertility.This cohort perspective underscores the need to explain long-run shifts in fertility behavior.We review existing research and conclude that period-based explanations focused on short-term changes in income or prices cannot explain the widespread decline.Instead, the evidence points to a broad reordering of adult priorities with parenthood occupying a diminished role.We refer to this phenomenon as "shifting priorities" and propose that it likely reflects a complex mix of changing norms, evolving economic opportunities and constraints, and broader social and cultural forces.We review emerging evidence on all these factors.We conclude the paper with suggestions for future research and a brief discussion of policy implications.