Journal of Economic Literature · 2026 · Melissa S. Kearney、Phillip B. Levine
中文摘要
我们考察为何近几十年来几乎所有高收入国家的生育率都在下降。我们首先记录了各世代总和生育率的下降与无子女率的上升，强调有必要区分世代生育率与时期生育率。以此为动机，我们提出一个生育率决定的概念模型，在标准贝克尔(Becker)模型的基础上引入社会规范与世代特定背景因素的明确作用，包括广泛的社会与经济影响以及扩展的消费与生活方式选择集。我们提出，这些力量导致了“优先事项的转变”，削弱了为人父母的中心地位。随后，我们回顾现有实证证据并得出结论：生育率的下降很可能反映了围绕工作、育儿、性别角色与休闲的社会规范变化的复杂组合，这与我们基于世代的概念框架相一致。最后，我们提出未来研究的建议，并简要讨论政策含义。
Abstract
We consider why fertility has fallen in recent decades in almost all high-income countries. We begin by documenting declining total fertility and rising childlessness across cohorts, highlighting the need to focus on cohort versus period-specific fertility rates. With this motivation, we propose a conceptual model of fertility determination that augments the standard Becker model with an explicit role for social norms and cohort-specific contextual factors, including broad social and economic influences and an expanded set of consumption and lifestyle options. We posit that these forces have led to "shifting priorities," reducing the centrality of parenthood. We then review existing empirical evidence and conclude that the decline in fertility likely reflects a complex mix of changing norms around work, parenting, gender roles, and leisure consistent with our cohort-based conceptual framework. We conclude with suggestions for future research and a brief discussion of policy implications.