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城市与社区增长的制约:住房供给的核心作用

Constraints on City and Neighborhood Growth: The Central Role of Housing Supply
Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2023 · Nathaniel Brandt Baum-Snow

中文摘要

1980年至2020年间,美国城市人口增长了近50%,且这一增长高度集中在阳光地带和大都市区边缘。本文探讨住房供给在塑造城市和社区增长方面的作用。住房供给约束使得在规模较大、密度较高的大都市区和社区,需求增长越来越多地表现为价格上涨,而不是住房单元数量或人口的增加。在现有开发强度较高、监管环境限制性更强的地区,新住房的供给成本越来越高。这两种力量均随时间推移而增强,使供给量对不断增长的需求反应更加迟钝,推动许多地区的住房价格上涨,并将住房数量增长进一步推向城市边缘。由于新建住房成本受到这些压力的影响,美国近期经历了更快的价格上涨,同时新建住房对住房存量的影响也在减弱。

Abstract

The US urban population increased by almost 50 percent between 1980 and 2020, with this growth heavily concentrated in the Sun Belt and at the fringes of metropolitan areas. This paper considers the role of housing supply in shaping the growth of cities and neighborhoods. Housing supply constraints have meant that demand growth has increasingly manifested as price growth rather than as increases in housing units or population in larger and denser metropolitan areas and neighborhoods. New housing is provided at increasingly higher cost in areas that have higher intensity of existing development and more restrictive regulatory environments. Both forces have strengthened over time, making quantity supplied less responsive to growing demand, driving housing price growth in many areas, and pushing housing quantity growth further out into urban fringes. As a result of such pressures on the cost of new construction, the US has recently experienced more rapid price growth and a declining influence of new construction on the housing stock.
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