Annual Review of Economics · 2014 · Anton Korinek、Enrique G. Mendoza
中文摘要
20世纪90年代，新兴市场发生的骤停是2008年全球金融危机的前兆。在这些骤停期间，各国失去了获得信贷的渠道，导致经常账户急剧逆转，并陷入严重衰退。本文回顾了一类能够得出与这些现象相符的定量预测的模型。这类模型以一种偶尔具有约束力的信贷约束为基础，该约束将债务限制在用作抵押品的收入或资产市场价值的一定比例以内。骤停是嵌套于常规经济周期之中的低频事件：一段时期的经济扩张将杠杆率推高至足够水平后，标准冲击便可能触发骤停。一旦发生这种情况，费雪式债务通缩机制便会启动：资产或商品价格下跌进一步收紧信贷约束，进而导致更严重的通缩。该框架还包含一种对宏观审慎政策具有重要意义的金钱外部性，因为经济主体没有将当前借贷决策对未来金融危机期间抵押品价值的影响内部化。
Abstract
In the 1990s, Sudden Stops in emerging markets were a harbinger of the 2008 global financial crisis. During these Sudden Stops, countries lost access to credit, which caused abrupt current account reversals, and suffered severe recessions. This article reviews a class of models that yield quantitative predictions consistent with these observations, based on an occasionally binding credit constraint that limits debt to a fraction of the market value of incomes or assets used as collateral. Sudden Stops are infrequent events nested within regular business cycles and occur in response to standard shocks after periods of expansion increase leverage ratios sufficiently. When this happens, the Fisherian debt-deflation mechanism is set in motion, as lower asset or goods prices tighten the constraint further, causing further deflation. This framework also embodies a pecuniary externality with important implications for macroprudential policy because agents do not internalize how current borrowing decisions affect collateral values during future financial crises.