中文摘要
本文通过比较刚好被录取与刚好被拒绝的申请者的长期结果，研究了就读美国公立大学的回报。我使用了覆盖得克萨斯州全部35所公立大学的招生行政记录——这些大学合计招收了全美公立大学学生的10%——系统地识别并利用各校分散设定的SAT/ACT分数门槛，这些门槛在录取和入学上形成了不连续性。典型的边际录取学生在四年制高校体系中多接受一年教育，获得学士学位的可能性提高12个百分点，最终收入比与其条件相同、但刚好被拒绝的申请者高8%。由于助学金的抵消，边际录取学生无需支付额外学费；成本收益核算显示，边际学生自身的内部收益率为26%，社会的内部收益率为16%（社会须承担新增教育成本），政府预算的内部收益率为7%。在选拔性不同的录取院校之间，收入增益相近；但低收入家庭学生的收入增益较小，他们在校时间更长，完成的学位却更少，且更多选择收入回报较低的专业。最后，本文提出一种方法，分别识别学生在是否就读任何大学（广延边际）与是否就读选择性更高大学（集约边际）两个边际上所受的效应，结果显示广延边际上的效应更大。
Abstract
Abstract This article studies the returns to enrolling in U.S. public universities by comparing the long-term outcomes of barely admitted versus barely rejected applicants. I use administrative admission records spanning all 35 public universities in Texas, which collectively enroll 10% of all American public university students, to systematically identify and employ decentralized cutoffs in SAT/ACT scores that generate discontinuities in admission and enrollment. The typical marginally admitted student gains an additional year of education in the four-year sector, becomes 12 percentage points more likely to ever earn a bachelor’s degree, and eventually earns 8% more than their marginally rejected but otherwise identical counterpart. Marginally admitted students pay no additional tuition costs thanks to offsetting grant aid; cost-benefit calculations show internal rates of return of 26% for the marginal students themselves, 16% for society (which must pay for the additional education), and 7% for the government budget. Earnings gains are similar across admitting institutions of varying selectivity, but smaller for students from low-income families, who spend more time enrolled but complete fewer degrees and major in less lucrative fields. Finally, I develop a method to separately identify effects for students on the extensive margin of attending any university versus those on the margin of attending a more selective one, revealing larger effects on the extensive margin.