共和党支持与经济困难: 阿片类药物流行的持久影响
Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects of the Opioid Epidemic
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Carolina Arteaga", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research", "University of Toronto"]}, {"name": "Victoria Barone", "affiliation": ["University of Notre Dame"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 本文确立了美国过去几十年间两项最突出的社会变迁之间的因果联系：阿片类药物流行与共和党和民主党之间的政治重组。利用针对普渡制药（Purdue Pharma）诉讼中解封的记录，我们揭示了处方阿片类药物营销在地域上的丰富差异，这一差异构成了阿片类药物流行暴露的一个准外生来源。我们利用这一差异，记录了药物相关死亡率的显著上升以及对公共转移支付项目依赖程度的加深。由此诱发的经济困境导致受阿片类药物流行影响最严重社区的政治格局发生重大变化。我们估计，从 2000 年代中期到 2022 年，阿片类药物流行的暴露持续提高了共和党在众议院、总统和州长选举中的得票份额。到 2022 年众议院选举时，我们的暴露度量每增加一个标准差，共和党得票份额上升 4.5 个百分点。从 2012 年到 2022 年，众议院得票份额的这一上升转化为共和党赢得了额外席位。
Abstract
Abstract In this article, we establish a causal connection between two of the most salient social developments in the United States over the past decades: the opioid epidemic and the political realignment between the Republican and Democratic parties. Drawing on unsealed records from litigation against Purdue Pharma, we uncover rich geographic variation in the marketing of prescription opioids that serves as a quasi-exogenous source of exposure to the epidemic. We use this variation to document significant increases in drug-related mortality and greater reliance on public transfer programs. This induced economic hardship led to substantial changes in the political landscape of the communities most affected by the opioid epidemic. We estimate that from the mid-2000s to 2022, exposure to the opioid epidemic continuously increased the Republican vote share in House, presidential, and gubernatorial elections. By the 2022 House elections, a one-standard-deviation increase in our measure of exposure led to a 4.5 percentage point increase in the Republican vote share. From 2012 until 2022, this increase in the House vote share translated into Republicans winning additional seats.