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转移支付项目的溢出效应

Spillover Effects of Transfer Programs
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Travis Baseler、Jules Gazeaud、Erik Snowberg

中文摘要

我们从有关现金和实物转移支付项目对非受助者产生溢出效应的实验中归纳出四个事实:(1)对消费和资产价值的平均溢出效应可以忽略不计;(2)在村内抽签中被随机排除在转移支付之外的家庭中,负面心理溢出效应会在较长期内显现;(3)这些溢出效应集中在消费水平较低的家庭中;(4)当转移支付受助者的选择以资格标准为依据时,这些效应并未出现。这些发现与家庭反对在村内随机分配转移支付的偏好相一致,并表明整群层面随机设计相较于家庭层面随机设计具有额外优势。

Abstract

We derive four facts from experiments on the spillover effects of cash and in-kind transfer programs onto non-recipients: (1) average spillovers on consumption and asset value are negligible; (2) negative psychological spillovers emerge in the longer term among households randomly excluded from transfers by within-village lotteries; (3) these spillovers are concentrated in consumption-poor households; and (4) they do not appear when the selection of transfer recipients is eligibility-based. These findings are consistent with household preferences against within-village randomization of transfers, and point to additional benefits of cluster-level randomized designs over household-level ones.
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