The Distribution and Consequences of Natural Disasters: Evidence from U.S. Wildfire Victims
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Patrick Baylis、Judson Boomhower、Jonathan M. Colmer、John L. Voorheis
中文摘要
自然灾害的经济负担取决于谁暴露于其中、谁遭受损失、这些损失如何改变个体的经济轨迹，以及受影响社区在灾后如何演变。我们将来自100多场美国野火的财产级损失数据与行政税收和人口普查数据相链接，以理解灾害损失与经济结果之间的个体层面关系。火灾区域居民的平均财富高于美国总人口，但在这些野火边界内，房屋被烧毁的可能性与火灾前收入呈负相关。房屋损毁带来的成本超出了重建财产本身：被毁房屋的居住者在火灾后三年内经历了收入下降，产生的累计收入损失相当于火灾前年收入的26%。对于没有直接财产损失的居民，我们未检测到收入或就业效应。社区恢复缓慢并伴随构成的变化。火灾发生四年后，半数被毁地址仍无人居住，且重新入住的地址容纳了收入显著高于此前的居民。
Abstract
The economic burden of natural disasters is shaped by who is exposed, who experiences losses, how those losses alter individual economic trajectories, and how affected communities evolve in the aftermath. We link property-level damage data from over 100 U.S. wildfires to administrative tax and Census data to understand individual-level relationships between disaster damage and economic outcomes. Residents of burned areas are wealthier than the U.S. population on average, but within these wildfire perimeters the likelihood that a home burns is negatively correlated with pre-fire income. Home destruction imposes costs beyond rebuilding the property: occupants of destroyed homes experience lower income for three years post-fire, producing cumulative income losses equal to 26 percent of pre-fire annual income. We do not detect income or employment effects for residents without direct property damage. Community recovery is slow and accompanied by changes in composition. Four years after a fire, half of destroyed addresses remain unoccupied and reoccupied addresses house residents with substantially higher incomes than before.