金矿中的金丝雀：人工智能创造组织资本带来的早期生产率增益

中文摘要

基于从机器学习到生成式与智能体AI的AI技能型就业，本文构建了一项新的企业层面AI投资指标，结果表明，近年来的AI投资与生产率增长相关，但在过去十年中则不然。我们将生产率增益追溯至AI帮助创造的组织资本积累：即通过干中学获得的、能够实现更高效生产的耐用企业专有知识。我们基于工人的职位描述构建了一项新的组织资本指标，并证明生产率增益是由构建组织资本的AI技能型岗位所驱动的。总体而言，我们的研究发现表明，AI投资通过创造组织资本来产生生产率增长。

Abstract

Using a new firm-level measure of AI investment based on AI-skilled employment—spanning machine learning through generative and agentic AI—we show that AI investments are associated with productivity growth in recent years, but not over the previous decade. We trace the productivity gains to the accumulation of organization capital that AI helps create: durable firm-specific knowledge acquired through learning-by-doing that enables more efficient production. We build a novel measure of organization capital based on workers’ job descriptions and document that productivity gains are driven by AI-skilled jobs that build organization capital. Overall, our findings suggest that AI investment generates productivity growth by creating organization capital.