1890-2006年美国的住房价格
The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890–2006
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Ronan C. Lyons", "affiliation": ["Trinity College", "Trinity College Dublin"]}, {"name": "Allison Shertzer", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia"]}, {"name": "Rowena Gray", "affiliation": ["University of California, Merced"]}, {"name": "David Agorastos", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
摘要 我们利用270万条报纸房地产挂牌信息，构建了20世纪美国城市首个年度市场租金和住房销售价格序列。我们的发现修正了关于美国住房市场的若干典型化事实。战后时期大多数城市的实际市场租金并未下降，全国层面从1890年至2006年上涨了60%。我们还记录到，1953年至1987年间的销售价格增长高于此前的序列。到2006年，实际价格达到其1890年水平的近四倍。价格在需求高、建筑活动水平低的大都市区增长最快。我们发现，租金—价格比从20世纪初的约8%下降至2006年的3%，这与相对于租房而言拥有住房的成本下降相一致。在我们研究期间的典型年份，拥有住房的年回报率为9%，主要由7.7%的租金回报驱动，资本利得仅贡献1.3%。1890年至1940年间资本利得接近于零，但到1970年至2006年间其增长至接近总回报的三分之一。
Abstract
Abstract We construct the first annual market rent and home sales price series for American cities over the twentieth century using 2.7 million newspaper real estate listings. Our findings revise several stylized facts about U.S. housing markets. Real market rents did not fall during the postwar period in most cities and rose nationally by 60% from 1890 to 2006. We also document higher sales price growth between 1953 and 1987 relative to previous series. Real prices reached almost four times their 1890 level by 2006. Prices grew most in metros with high demand and low levels of construction. We find that the rent-to-price ratio fell from about 8% in the early twentieth century to 3% by 2006, consistent with declines in the cost of owning housing relative to renting. For the typical year in our period, the annual return to owning housing was 9%, driven mostly by rental returns of 7.7%, with capital gains contributing only 1.3%. While capital gains were close to zero from 1890 to 1940, they grew to nearly a third of total returns from 1970 to 2006.