Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2025 · Ronan C. Lyons、Allison Shertzer、Rowena Gray、David Agorastos
中文摘要
我们利用270万条报纸房地产广告，构建了首套覆盖20世纪美国城市的年度市场租金与住宅销售价格序列。研究结果修正了关于美国住房市场的若干典型事实：在大多数城市，实际市场租金在战后时期并未下降，从1890年到2006年全国实际租金上涨了60%。我们还发现，1953年至1987年间的销售价格增速高于既有序列所显示的水平。到2006年，实际价格达到1890年水平的近四倍。在需求旺盛而建设水平较低的大都市区，价格增长最为显著。我们发现，租售比从20世纪初的约8%下降至2006年的3%，这与住房自有成本相对于租赁成本下降相一致。在研究期间的典型年份，拥有住房的年回报率为9%，主要由7.7%的租金回报驱动，资本利得仅贡献1.3%。尽管1890年至1940年资本利得接近于零，但在1970年至2006年间，其占总回报的比重增至近三分之一。
Abstract
Abstract We construct the first annual market rent and home sales price series for American cities over the twentieth century using 2.7 million newspaper real estate listings. Our findings revise several stylized facts about U.S. housing markets. Real market rents did not fall during the postwar period in most cities and rose nationally by 60% from 1890 to 2006. We also document higher sales price growth between 1953 and 1987 relative to previous series. Real prices reached almost four times their 1890 level by 2006. Prices grew most in metros with high demand and low levels of construction. We find that the rent-to-price ratio fell from about 8% in the early twentieth century to 3% by 2006, consistent with declines in the cost of owning housing relative to renting. For the typical year in our period, the annual return to owning housing was 9%, driven mostly by rental returns of 7.7%, with capital gains contributing only 1.3%. While capital gains were close to zero from 1890 to 1940, they grew to nearly a third of total returns from 1970 to 2006.