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采购拍卖中非竞争性投标的稳健筛查方法

Robust Screens for Noncompetitive Bidding in Procurement Auctions
Econometrica · 2022 · Sylvain Chassang、Kei Kawai、Jun Nakabayashi、Juan Ortner

中文摘要

我们记录了日本采购拍卖中出现的一种新颖投标模式:中标报价往往孤立出现,而接近中标价的落标报价则存在概率质量缺失。这种模式之所以可疑,是因为其极端形式与任意信息结构下的竞争行为均不相容。基于这一观察,我们构建了一套针对采购拍卖中竞争行为的系统性检验;这些检验既允许一般的信息结构,也允许非平稳的不可观测异质性。我们对这些检验进行了实证探索,并表明它们有助于识别数据中的其他可疑模式。

Abstract

We document a novel bidding pattern observed in procurement auctions from Japan: winning bids tend to be isolated, and there is a missing mass of close losing bids. This pattern is suspicious in the following sense: its extreme forms are inconsistent with competitive behavior under arbitrary information structures. Building on this observation, we develop systematic tests of competitive behavior in procurement auctions that allow for general information structures as well as nonstationary unobserved heterogeneity. We provide an empirical exploration of our tests, and show they can help identify other suspicious patterns in the data.
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