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财富税与财富积累:来自丹麦的理论与证据*

Wealth Taxation and Wealth Accumulation: Theory and Evidence From Denmark*
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2019 · Katrine Jakobsen、Kristian Jakobsen、Henrik Kleven、Gabriel Zucman

中文摘要

利用丹麦的行政财富记录,我们研究财富税对财富积累的影响。丹麦曾对财富征收世界上最高的边际税率之一,但自1989年起,这一税种被大幅削减,随后又被废除。由于财富税的具体设计,1989年的改革为理解最富裕人群的行为反应提供了一个极具说服力的准实验。我们发现,财富税在短期和中期具有明确的简约式效应,且对极富裕人群的影响大于对中等富裕人群的影响。我们构建了一个包含剩余财富(遗赠)效用的简单生命周期模型,从而能够依据结构原始参数解释这些证据。我们校准模型以匹配准实验矩,并向前模拟模型,以估计财富税对财富积累的长期影响。模拟结果表明,在财富分布顶端,应税财富对税后回报率的长期弹性相当大。

Abstract

Abstract Using administrative wealth records from Denmark, we study the effects of wealth taxes on wealth accumulation. Denmark used to impose one of the world’s highest marginal tax rates on wealth, but this tax was greatly reduced starting in 1989 and later abolished. Due to the specific design of the wealth tax, the 1989 reform provides a compelling quasi-experiment for understanding behavioral responses among the wealthiest segments of the population. We find clear reduced-form effects of wealth taxes in the short and medium run, with larger effects on the very wealthy than on the moderately wealthy. We develop a simple life cycle model with utility of residual wealth (bequests) allowing us to interpret the evidence in terms of structural primitives. We calibrate the model to the quasi-experimental moments and simulate the model forward to estimate the long-run effect of wealth taxes on wealth accumulation. Our simulations show that the long-run elasticity of taxable wealth with respect to the net-of-tax return is sizable at the top of the distribution.
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