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货币联盟与金融一体化理论

A Theory of Monetary Union and Financial Integration
Review of Economic Studies · 2021 · Luca Fornaro

中文摘要

自欧元创立以来,成员国之间的资本流动规模一直很大且波动剧烈。受这一事实启发,我提出了一种将汇率制度与金融一体化联系起来的理论。该模型的关键特征是,货币政策会影响发生债务违约时债权人所扣押的抵押品的价值。在浮动汇率制下,各国政府可以通过使本币贬值来侵占外国债权人的权益,这会促使投资者对国际借款施加严格约束。建立货币联盟消除了这一汇率风险来源,从而提高了成员国之间的金融一体化程度。然而,这一过程并不一定会带来更高的福利。原因在于,高度的资本流动性可能产生多重均衡,其中不良均衡以无效率的资本外逃为特征。资本管制或财政转移可以消除不良均衡,但实施这些措施需要国际合作。

Abstract

Abstract Since the creation of the euro, capital flows among member countries have been large and volatile. Motivated by this fact, I provide a theory connecting the exchange rate regime to financial integration. The key feature of the model is that monetary policy affects the value of collateral that creditors seize upon default. Under flexible exchange rates, national governments can expropriate foreign creditors by depreciating the exchange rate, which induces investors to impose tight constraints on international borrowing. Creating a monetary union, by eliminating this source of currency risk, increases financial integration among member countries. This process, however, does not necessarily lead to higher welfare. The reason is that a high degree of capital mobility can generate multiple equilibria, with bad equilibria characterized by inefficient capital flights. Capital controls or fiscal transfers can eliminate bad equilibria, but their implementation requires international cooperation.
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