中文摘要
我们研究移民的文化融合，估计了一个基于族裔维度的婚姻匹配结构模型，并详细探讨了生育以及可能的离婚在融合过程中的作用。我们利用了1995年至2012年意大利所有婚姻的丰富行政人口数据，以及出生和分居记录。我们估计出少数族裔对将其子女社会化至自身身份具有强烈偏好，并识别出婚姻选择与生育选择是基本的社会化机制。估计结果显示，意大利人对移民少数族裔的文化不容忍程度也相当高。转向长期模拟，我们发现文化不容忍程度，以及生育率与同族通婚率，减缓了某些移民少数族裔（尤其是拉丁美洲、东亚和撒哈拉以南非洲）的文化融合。尽管如此，75%的移民在一代人的时期内融入了多数族裔文化。有趣的是，我们通过反事实分析表明，意大利人对少数族裔较低的文化不容忍程度会导致更慢的文化融合，因为这允许移民在异族通婚中更广泛地使用自己的语言而非意大利语。最后，我们定量评估了未来大规模移民流入的影响。
Abstract
We study the cultural integration of immigrants, estimating a structural model of marital matching along ethnic dimensions, exploring in detail the role of fertility, and possibly divorce in the integration process. We exploit rich administrative demographic data on the universe of marriages formed in Italy, as well as birth and separation records from 1995 to 2012. We estimate strong preferences of ethnic minorities' towards socialization of children to their own identity, identifying marital selection and fertility choices as fundamental socialization mechanisms. The estimated cultural intolerance of Italians towards immigrant minorities is also substantial. Turning to long-run simulations, we find that cultural intolerances, as well as fertility and homogamy rates, slow-down the cultural integration of some immigrant ethnic minorities, especially Latin America, East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Nonetheless, 75%of immigrants integrate into the majoritarian culture over the period of a generation. Interestingly, we show by counterfactual analysis that a lower cultural intolerance of Italians towards minorities would lead to slower cultural integration by allowing immigrants a more widespread use of their own language rather than Italian in heterogamous marriages. Finally, we quantitatively assess the effects of large future immigration inflows.