Industrial Policy Implementation: Empirical Evidence from China’s Shipbuilding Industry
Review of Economic Studies · 2025 · Panle Jia Barwick、Myrto Kalouptsidi、Nahim Bin Zahur
中文摘要
产业政策在世界各地被广泛采用。在实践中，设计和实施这些政策是一项复杂的任务。本文评估了不同产业政策工具的长期绩效，包括生产补贴、投资补贴、进入补贴和整合政策。为此，本文考察了中国近期一项旨在推动本国造船业成为全球最大造船业的产业政策。利用1998年至2014年的企业层面数据，并构建一个刻画企业进入、退出、投资和生产的动态模型，本文发现：(i) 该政策大幅促进了中国国内投资、企业进入和国际市场份额，但回报率较低，并导致产业碎片化、产能闲置以及世界船舶价格下降；(ii) 不同政策工具的有效性参差不齐：生产补贴和投资补贴可基于市场份额的考量得到合理辩护，而进入补贴则是一种浪费；(iii) 逆周期政策、针对特定企业施策以及缩短干预期限可以大幅减少扭曲。本文的结果凸显了企业异质性、商业周期和企业成本结构在政策设计中的关键作用。最后，在探讨政策的潜在依据时，本文发现了支持非古典考量的证据，例如通过降低运费来促进中国贸易。
Abstract
Abstract Industrial policies are widely used across the world. In practice, designing and implementing these policies is a complicated task. In this paper, we assess the long-term performance of different industrial policy instruments, which include production subsidies, investment subsidies, entry subsidies, and consolidation policies. To do so, we examine a recent industrial policy in China aiming to propel the country’s shipbuilding industry to the largest globally. Using firm-level data from 1998 to 2014 and a dynamic model of firm entry, exit, investment, and production, we find that (i) the policy boosted China’s domestic investment, entry, and international market share dramatically, but delivered low returns and led to fragmentation, idle capacity, as well as depressed world ship prices; (ii) the effectiveness of different policy instruments is mixed: production and investment subsidies can be justified by market share considerations, while entry subsidies are wasteful; (iii) counter-cyclical policies, firm-targeting, and shortening the intervention horizon can substantially reduce distortions. Our results highlight the critical role of firm heterogeneity, business cycles, and firms’ cost structure in policy design. Finally, when exploring potential rationales, we find support for nonclassical considerations, such as reducing freight rates to boost Chinese trade.