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为长期投资而进行的临时迁移

Temporary migration for long-term investment
Journal of Development Economics · 2024 · Laurent Bossavie、Joseph‐Simon Görlach、Çağlar Özden、He Wang

中文摘要

来自孟加拉国的新调查数据提供了直接证据,表明临时迁移是工人积累资本并为返乡后的自雇活动融资的一种有效策略。我们估计了一个约束条件下临时迁移与创业投资的动态模型,并用该模型进行政策分析。降低迁移成本会增加向外迁移,降低工人离境时的年龄并缩短其在国外停留的时间,二者共同带来更多储蓄和国内自雇活动。将迁移成本降低一半,可使企业创办增加8%。降低创业贷款利率会减少迁移和储蓄汇回,从而削弱其对国内企业创办的积极影响。这凸显了联合考察迁移与投资的必要性,因为针对其中任一选择的政策,其效果都可能因另一选择的内生反应而得到增强或受到削弱。

Abstract

New survey data from Bangladesh provide direct evidence that temporary migration is an effective strategy for workers to accumulate capital and finance self-employment activities back home. We estimate a dynamic model of temporary migration and entrepreneurial investment under constraints, which we use for policy analysis. Lowering of migration costs increases emigration, reduces the age at which workers depart and the duration of their time abroad, which together lead to higher savings and domestic self-employment. Cutting the cost of migration by one half boosts business creation by 8%. Reducing the interest rate for entrepreneurial loans lowers migration and savings repatriation, undercutting the positive effects on business creation at home. This highlights the need to investigate migration and investment jointly, since policies targeting either choice may be enhanced or undercut by endogenous responses in the other.
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