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工业革命的机制

The Mechanics of the Industrial Revolution
Journal of Political Economy · 2022 · Morgan Kelly、Joel Mokyr、Cormac Ó Gráda

中文摘要

尽管关于工业革命存在诸多相互竞争的解释,但尚无研究以计量经济学方法对它们进行评估。本文分析了1760年代至1830年代间英格兰各郡之间迥异的增长模式如何能够由一系列广泛的潜在变量加以解释。我们发现,工业化发生在初始工资较低但机械技能较高的地区,而其他变量,如识字率、银行以及距煤矿的远近,则几乎没有解释力。与工业革命期间生活水平停滞不前的观点相反,我们发现北方工业化地区的实际工资急剧上升,而在先前繁荣的南部则有所下降。

Abstract

Although there are many competing explanations for the Industrial Revolution, there has been no effort to evaluate them econometrically. This paper analyzes how the very different patterns of growth across the counties of England between the 1760s and 1830s can be explained by a wide range of potential variables. We find that industrialization occurred in areas that began with low wages but high mechanical skills, whereas other variables, such as literacy, banks, and proximity to coal, have little explanatory power. Against the view that living standards were stagnant during the Industrial Revolution, we find that real wages rose sharply in the industrializing north and declined in the previously prosperous south.
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