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人口结构与自动化

Demographics and Automation
Review of Economic Studies · 2021 · Daron Acemoğlu、Pascual Restrepo

中文摘要

我们从理论上论证并从经验上记录了老龄化导致更高程度的(工业)自动化,因为老龄化造成了专司手工生产任务的中年工人短缺。我们发现,人口结构变化与各国更多地采用机器人及其他自动化技术相关,也与美国通勤区中更多的机器人相关活动相关。我们还记录了在老龄化更快的国家中存在更多的自动化创新。我们的定向技术变迁模型预测,自动化技术对老龄化的反应在更依赖中年工人的行业中以及那些提供更多自动化机会的行业中应更为显著;并且生产率应当提高,劳动份额应当在更易于自动化的行业中相对下降。证据支持所有这四个预测。

Abstract

Abstract We argue theoretically and document empirically that aging leads to greater (industrial) automation, because it creates a shortage of middle-aged workers specializing in manual production tasks. We show that demographic change is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across countries and with more robotics-related activities across U.S. commuting zones. We also document more automation innovation in countries undergoing faster aging. Our directed technological change model predicts that the response of automation technologies to aging should be more pronounced in industries that rely more on middle-aged workers and those that present greater opportunities for automation and that productivity should improve and the labor share should decline relatively in industries that are more amenable to automation. The evidence supports all four of these predictions.
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