Review of Economic Studies · 2025 · [{"name": "Esteban Méndez", "affiliation": ["Universidad de Costa Rica"]}, {"name": "Diana Van Patten", "affiliation": ["Yale University"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 我们利用一个独特事件，研究民众对贸易的态度在多大程度上由经济基本面驱动。2007 年，哥斯达黎加就一项自由贸易协定（FTA）举行全国公投。选票上仅有一个问题，59% 的哥斯达黎加成年公民就是否希望批准与美国的自由贸易协定进行了投票。我们将细分的公投结果——这在兼容匿名性的投票数据方面开辟了新路径——与雇主—雇员、海关、企业间交易数据以及家庭构成与支出数据相合并。我们发现，企业对 FTA 的暴露（既包括直接暴露，也包括经由投入—产出联系的暴露）显著影响其雇员的投票行为。这一效应超过了部门层面暴露的效应，且对于与支持 FTA 的政治候选人立场一致的选民而言更大。我们还表明，公民在投票时考虑了预期的消费者价格下降。总体而言，经济因素解释了投票模式变异的 7%，这部分变异无法由政治意识形态等非经济因素解释，并在此次投票中发挥了关键作用。
Abstract
Abstract We exploit a unique event to study the extent to which popular attitudes towards trade are driven by economic fundamentals. In 2007, Costa Rica put a free trade agreement (FTA) to a national referendum. With a single question on the ballot, 59% of Costa Rican adult citizens cast a vote on whether they wanted an FTA with the U.S. to be ratified or not. We merge disaggregated referendum results, which break new ground on anonymity-compatible voting data, with employer–employee, customs, and firm-to-firm transactions data, and data on household composition and expenditures. We document that a firm’s exposure to the FTA, directly and via input–output linkages, significantly influences the voting behaviour of its employees. This effect dominates that of sector-level exposure and is greater for voters aligned with pro-FTA political candidates. We also show that citizens considered the expected decrease in consumer prices when exercising their vote. Overall, economic factors explain 7% of the variation in voting patterns, which cannot be accounted for by non-economic factors such as political ideology, and played a pivotal role in this vote.