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逆周期公共投资的就业效应

The Employment Effects of Countercyclical Public Investments
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2023 · Lukas Buchheim、Martin Watzinger

中文摘要

本文估计了德国一项大规模公共投资计划对县级层面就业的因果影响。该计划侧重于提高学校建筑的能源效率,因此可以利用学校数量作为投资的工具变量。该计划还强制执行了紧迫的截止期限,减少了潜在的实施滞后。该计划具有成本效益,平均每投资24,000欧元即可创造一个为期一年的工作岗位。九个月后即可检测到就业增长,同时失业人数有所减少,减少量相当于新增岗位数量的一半。就业增长主要发生在直接受影响的行业。

Abstract

This paper estimates the causal impact of a sizable German public investment program on employment at the county level. The program focused on improving the energy efficiency of school buildings, making it possible to use the number of schools as an instrument for investments. It also enforced tight deadlines, reducing potential implementation lags. The program was cost-effective, creating, on average, one job for one year for an investment of €24,000. The employment gains are detectable after nine months and are accompanied by an unemployment reduction amounting to half of the job creation. Employment grew predominately in the directly affected industries. (JEL E24, E32, E62, H54, J23, R23)
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