受教育程度较低的美国人的死亡率变化

中文摘要

对受教育程度较低的美国人死亡率变化的测量可能存在偏误，因为受教育程度最低的群体（如辍学者）随时间推移规模缩小，且负向选择性增强。我们表明，仅需很少的假设，就可以确定固定受教育程度百分位上的死亡率变化的上下界。1992年至2018年间，非西班牙裔白人的中年死亡率上升几乎完全由受教育程度分布中最低的10%人群驱动。不同群体死亡率变化的驱动因素存在很大差异。“绝望之死”解释了年轻非西班牙裔白人死亡率变化的大部分，但在年龄较大的白人和非西班牙裔黑人中，其所解释的部分较少。我们给出的上下界适用于许多其他情境。

Abstract

Measurements of mortality change among less educated Americans can be biased because the least educated groups (e.g., dropouts) become smaller and more negatively selected over time. We show that mortality changes at constant education percentiles can be bounded with minimal assumptions. Middle-age mortality increases among non-Hispanic Whites from 1992 to 2018 are driven almost entirely by the bottom 10 percent of the education distribution. Drivers of mortality change differ substantially across groups. Deaths of despair explain most of the mortality change among young non-Hispanic Whites, but less among older Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks. Our bounds are applicable in many other contexts. (JEL I12, I26, J15)